Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.614020 1.829982 2.060168 2.323342 2.615453 2.929288 3.291512
2024-12-15 1.380299 1.688164 2.037815 2.462597 2.962866 3.531403 4.224422
2024-12-22 1.165095 1.531833 1.974098 2.542590 3.249364 4.094225 5.175137
2024-12-29 1.034318 1.456943 1.996304 2.726936 3.681438 4.875649 6.470794
2025-01-05 0.855036 1.292957 1.885043 2.730461 3.890407 5.407660 7.520263
2025-01-12 0.723322 1.172294 1.814177 2.777865 4.162396 6.049674 8.779503
2025-01-19 0.604865 1.050856 1.724806 2.787551 4.383776 6.646854 10.039950
2025-01-26 0.532891 0.988023 1.712024 2.906091 4.772935 7.514150 11.756616
2025-02-02 0.465791 0.921285 1.683434 2.996443 5.129819 8.368529 13.532952
2025-02-09 0.401331 0.847183 1.631771 3.042740 5.422807 9.153874 15.275638
2025-02-16 0.348588 0.784313 1.589521 3.098401 5.735618 9.996227 17.175056
2025-02-23 0.289963 0.698134 1.492226 3.045235 5.860356 10.549881 18.666130
2025-03-02 0.234875 0.609268 1.379575 2.956818 5.928695 11.041396 20.140970
2025-03-09 0.200479 0.557454 1.330791 2.981727 6.202601 11.904893 22.307712
2025-03-16 0.167615 0.501082 1.262939 2.959972 6.388847 12.635666 24.314325
2025-03-23 0.149906 0.477692 1.262107 3.074560 6.847755 13.890354 27.330447
2025-03-30 0.122819 0.422262 1.179007 3.003552 6.934817 14.478038 29.213257
2025-04-06 0.103871 0.383791 1.128280 2.995402 7.147148 15.315916 31.612577
2025-04-13 0.086671 0.345034 1.069056 2.958605 7.294774 16.041684 33.857969
2025-04-20 0.077341 0.328161 1.062776 3.044844 7.713632 17.326463 37.241870
2025-04-27 0.068298 0.309357 1.047710 3.107531 8.087210 18.550052 40.591789
2025-05-04 0.059167 0.287067 1.018402 3.130052 8.372331 19.615760 43.704994
2025-05-11 0.051718 0.268409 0.995857 3.166695 8.693614 20.780032 47.089400